January 9, 2020: Research consultancy DNV Global’s annual report Energy Transition Outlook 2019 predicts vehicle-to-grid solutions will become so widespread in homes, garages and street parking that on average 10% of EV batteries will provide around 30% of available electricitycapacity by 2050.
The report says that “dedicated power system batteries, including both Li-ion and redox flow batteries, will grow fast after 2030, providing 62% of storage capacity by 2050, which will total 27 TWh by then.”
It also reckons that the so-called “continued learning rate” — the cost of a technology decreases by a constant fraction with every doubling of capacity— for battery storage will remain at 19% until 2050.
This ‘learning curve’ effect occurs because market deployment brings greater experience, expertise and industrial efficiencies, as well as further R&D.
This learning rate means that battery costs in 2050 will decline to $25/kWh, from $125 today. This will result from – and is a decisive factor behind – the massive uptake of EVs, the report says.
Wind has a historical learning rate of 16% and PV 18%, and DNV suggests that these will continue through to 2050.
DNV GL predicts a rapid transition: by mid-century the energy mix will be split almost equally between fossil and non-fossil sources.